With neither El Niño or a La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, long-range weather forecasters have been struggling to develop confidence in their outlook for the coming spring season — a critical time for much of the West in terms of getting some relief from drought conditions.

Britons may remember 2012 as the year the weather spun off its rails in a chaotic concoction of drought, deluge and flooding, but the unpredictability of it all turns out to have been all too predictable: Around the world, extreme has become the new commonplace. Especially lately. China is enduring its coldest winter in nearly 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell.

There have been devastating droughts in the past few years in places like Africa, Australia, and the United States. Last summer, the drought in the central US caused the loss of massive crops, causing a major economic hit for the country. The seemingly increasing prevalence of droughts has some announcing the effects of climate change coming to fruition.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a warmer- and drier-than-average winter for 2012-2013 after the El Niño weather pattern didn’t develop as predicted. When El Niño is present, warm water in the Pacific Ocean causes a shift in tropical weather patterns, which in turn affects the jet stream over the United States.

A change in the climate more likely would cause a crisis on the Colorado River than more development of the rivers waters by Colorado, a consultant said. For years, water use in California, Arizona and Nevada has pushed the limits of the 1922 Colorado River Compact.

It might be another warm, dry summer, similar to conditions that have prevailed on the Eastern Plains since September of last year, and conditions that could imply the region is headed for another drought. Nolan Doesken, state climatologist at Colorado State University, drew his normal large crowd at the 2011 Colorado Farm Show on Wednesday afternoon.

The weather experts who look at the big picture say we're facing a "La Niña winter" this time around. For the West, this means it will be wet in the north and dry in the south. But the moisture won't arrive for a while. The La Niña pattern includes relatively warm, dry days well into November, with snow and cold coming hard in December and January.